October 30, 2006- False Alarm

   Last week, there were rumors circulating all over the place cocerning the health of Fidel Castro. Most of them said that he had died from whatever ailment that has had him hospitalized for so long. He was supposed to have died and power was officially transferred to his no acount brother and this was being kept secret. The Cuban government has vigorously denied these rumors ever since, saying that they were scurrilous lies and the like. Yesterday, they put these rumors to rest when the showed the first video of Castro that anyone has seen in a few weeks. It was shot at the hospital or rehabilitation center or wherever the fuck he is at now and he was wearing some kind of tracksuit looking garment and shown walking down a hallway. He was not exactly looking hale and hearty, he shuffled slowly down the hallway and never actually said anything. Me did some little movements with his hands and body, apparently to show that he is not paralyzed or anything, and he left the words to his flunkies at the Cuban TV network, and they said that this film showed conclusively that Fidel Castro is stil alive, and that rumors of his death were started by his enemies and the like. Washington said that in their estimation, this film was indeed legit, and that Castro is still alive and that the rumors were false. That news mist not have gone down to well in Washington. because there are certainly more than a few people in the American government that would have loved to see Castro dead at last, because they have been waiting a very long time for that to happen, some of them ever since Castro took over in 1959. America never took to that fact too well, and has spent almost 50 years now trying to get rid of the dude. Everything from assassination attempts to wild spy shit like poisoning him while he was scuba diving has been thought of  and even tried, but there has been absolutely nothing that has been able to get rid of Fidel Castro ever since 1959. These last couple of decades, Washington seems to have been resigned to the fact that they were  not going to be able to get rid of the dude and just decided to wait it out until he finally died of something or another, so those rumors last week must have been very enticing in Washington, because many figured that perhaps the time had finally come. There are all sorts of people in Washington that have been ready for that event ever since it was announced that Castro was ill and needed surgery  back last summer. Surely, there was much hope that this ailment, whatever it was, would be able to do what America's might and wealth had been unable to do for 47 years now. Since it has been proven to be a false alarm, they have all gone back to the stations to wait it out a bit more, after all, Castro is not only infirm, he is now 80 years old, and the end for him just has to be near, so they know that this story might have been a bit premature this time, but that it won't be very soon, and when it is for real, they want to be ready, and rest assured that they are. This false alarm just showed everyone that the time is coming soon, and when it does, it is going to set forth a whole chain of things.

   The biggest one of these will be the fact that America will want to rush right in and install a nice friendly puppet government in Cuba, the type that used to exist before Castro came  to power.  The presence of a Communist government in Cuba, a mere 80 or so miles away from American shores, has beena sore spot with Washington ever since 1959. It was a serious danger back in 1962, when they had the Cuban Misile Crisis, when the USSR was going to put nuclear missiles in Cuba and point them towards ever major population center in America. that was defused, but the bad relations between Washington and Havana continued. There has never been any question that Washington has wanted a regime change in Cuba and have done  everything that they possibly could think of to make that happen, so when Castro finally does die, Washington is going to want to rush right in. Tyhe fact that there is supposed to be a succession plan in place in Cuba makes that a bit harder, Castro's brother Raul is supposed to take over.However ,that may not happen because Raul is no spring chicken himself, he is way up  in his 70's, and he is also a long term alcoholic. Ever since he supposedly took over when Fidel was hospitalized, he has rarely been seen in public  and nothing has been heard from him either. The common wisdom is that he is too fucked up to actually rule and is only a figurehead not a  real leader. This possibly could make it easier for America, because Raul would probably not put up too much of a fight and be removed easily, the problem them becomes just who does America put in there. The obvious answer would be to hook up wit hthe many opposition groups that are in Cuba, but America has tried hooling up with these guys many times before and never had any success. Some of that is because Castro found out what was going on and put a stop to it, but a lot of it is because these opposition groups are not welll organized and fight among themselves too much. There seem to be no concrete kleaders to run things, and that means no one that America can work with. Washington has even gone so far over the years as to train these guys themselves, and still, no one has been suitable to work with, that is a big part of the reason that Castro is still around, because his opposition is too shitty and weak. This has not changed since the 1960's, so to think that someone would be there to take over when Castro finally dies is silly and unrealistic. That would mean that America needs to have people ready to step in right away working for them,. and that has never worked either, because even the Cuban expatriates in America are no good to work with, and someone that is familiar with Cuba needs to run this, and Washington just has none of those on tap since America has had shitty relations with Cuba for so long. America has isolated and ignored Cuba for so long that they have no idea of how it works now and no one in Washington would have a fucking clue as to what to do if they went  in there after Castro dies.

   However, that is not about to stop them, so Cuba just has to have a better plan that having alkie Raul takeover, and they do. Their largest friend, the USSR, died out some time ago, so Cuba has had to cultivate new ones, and they have a big one in Hugo Chavez, the President of Venezuela. That guy wants to be the new Castro, the Communist leader in the Western Hemisphere that fucks with and annoys America all the time, and to do so, he has had to buddy up to the real Castro first. He has done so mainly through the massive amoiuhnts of money that he has given Cuba, helping them through the isolation that America imposes on them. Castro has been cool about that, and has apparently groomed Chavez to take over for him when he dies, although whether it would be in a offical capacity as leader of Cuba or not remains to be seen. However, whetbher or not he is an actual President or not, Chavez surely has a lot of support in Cuba  and will be an influential man there. So he is willing to lend his military to Cuba to help defend against any American invasion once Castro dies, and his military is no joke either. Washington would not have an easy time like they had in Haiti, because the combined strengths of the Cuban and Venezuelan military will give America everything they could want and then some. America would be in for quite a fight, and nothing would come easy at all. Castro has plans on dealing with those opposition leaders in Cuba once he is gone, his government has been spying on and watching them relentlessly for years now, and knows exactly where they are, and would be able to round them all up very quickly if need be. Add to that the fact that the Cuban government would not officially announce Castro's death for a while, and that gives them even more time to round up whoever they deem necessary. no one could actually act on anytyhing until they knew for sure that he was dead, and if that announcement was delayed, everyone that posed a threat could be eliminated before anyone knew what was happening. America would have no choice except to go  into Cuba in a massive military scale  and prepare to have quite a battle, and to have many people on both sides die. Washington has not been unaware of that fact either,and  there are surely plans to that very nature afoot, and probably havew been for decades now. This could be the only chance that America gets for another half century to get the government that they want in Cuba, and they know that they'll have to act fast, for even the America spy community won't know that Castro is dead much before anyone else does and time will be of the essence. A huge show of military force of "shock  and awe" proportions seems to be the only reciurse that America  has, perhaps such a show would convice the Communists to gove up right away, but do not count  on that one. They are prepared as they can get for just such a thing, they have expected it for decades, and will take whatever America hands out. They will never surrender easily, and America would have another Iraq on its hands right away, a situation that woule be going nowhere fast.

   However, when you factor in that some in Washington have been waiting for this opportunity since 1959, patience would have run out by now, and action would be the preferred course. The problem with that is that America is stretched far to thin militarily now as it is to put together any real fighting force to go into Cuba, there is just no way that tropps can be diverted from other places for that. Washington wanted to be done in Iraq before Castro died, and if the guy hangs on long enough, he may be, but he will have to be hanging on for a long time to come yet to see that, so Washington is going to have  to resign itself to the fact that he will die while America is still at war. That could mean that those dudes in Washington that have been waiting since 1959 to get rid of Castro might have to miss their one and only chance simply because America is unable to do anything about that  right now. Even though he has been a problem for America for 47 years, there have been more pressing problems that have come up lately, and they take precedence over him. That makes now the perfect time for the dude to die because now his regime stands the greatest chance of remaining after his death and America stands to blow its only chance to finally get rid of the dude. Communism seems destined to remain on the island, so close to America for another number of decades whether Washington likes it or not. Castro has made a career out fo fucking America over and embarassing them, and his death is not going to change that any at all. It seems to be the last chapter in his story of how he stood up to such a might enemy for so long and never bowed, and that's just the way Castro would want it to be. This is the perfect ending as far as he is concerned, and he plans on milking it for all that it is worth. that was why the false alarms went out last week, they were designed to get people in Washington all excited and then disappointed, and we can expect to see that apttern repeated a few more time before he actualy does die. For Fidel Castro knows that he is essentially through, that he wil be dying soon, but he wants his death to be exactly what his life was, something that fucked America over and made them mad. He knows that Washington just cannot bring in enough military might to do anything in Cuba now, and that they won't for many years to come. Whether or not these zealots in Washington realize it or not remains to be seen, but if they do not, they will shortly. When Castro does die and they try to launch their invasion, they'll see that they can't get it done, that this moment that they have been waiting for so long is slipping away from them, and that they have no choice except to hope that the opposition groups in Cuba finally have their shit together enough to overthrow thr Communists, but since most of themj should be in prison by then, that hope is not a great one. So these zealots  in Washington that have wanted Castro's head for so many years are about to come up empty once and for all, and the false alarm was just something to torment them even more, because that is about al that Fidel Castro can do anymore, and seeing what an evil and venal man he is, expect him to make that his hobby from now until the day that he does die, because to him, that means dying on his own terms, not Washington's and that is about all that the fucker ever wanted out of life anyway, was to live his life his way and not theirs, and he wants to die the same way, and it look like he is going to accomplish that too.

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