October 24, 2004- A Surprise?

For quite some time now, we have been hearing about an "October Surprise" that President Bush and the White House have in the offing to spring on everyone before Election Day comes. People are saying that because other incumbent Presidents have pulled these things off in past Election years, doing something dramatic in order to get themselves the best possible publicity available, and thus, votes. Jimmy Carter's negotiating with the Iranians to release the American hostages back in the 1980 campaign is an example of that, however, it failed, because they could not get it done before Election Day, and if they had been able to, Carter probably would have defeated Ronnie Reagan in that election. However, that October Surprise was nothing when its compared to the scenarios being thrown around this year. People have been saying shit like the White House is either going to stage or allow a terrorist attack on America right before Election Day, and that the White House might get its lawyers to tie thing up hopelessly in the courts so that the outcome of the election on November 2nd cannot be trusted, and that the White House is intimidating voters in key states like Florida to stay the fuck away from the polls because they are not likely to vote Republican, to many, many other scenarios. None of these have materialized yet, but that has not stopped people from speculating about them and other possible surprises from the White House in these next few days. One of these scenarios is especially disturbing, because it involves war. According to those that say that they are in the know about this, the White House is preparing to launch a military strike against Iran before Election day if the White House feels that the race is too close to call. The thinking here is that doing this would give President Bush a huge groundswell of popularity right before Election day, and that there would not be enough time for senator Kerry to mount a counteroffensive to this, and that Bush would then win the election handily. So, the wizards at the pentagon have supposedly drawn up a plan for an American military strike against Iran's top leadership, the nuclear reactor at Bushehr, and key nuclear targets throughout the country, including the main underground research site at Natanz and another at Isfahan. These plans even go as far as to include the attacking of mosques in Tehran, Qom, and Isfahan where America says the top Islamic Holy men are at. Washingtonm has already deployed manpower to the area, specifically the USS John F. Kennedy, after shaking up the command chain on that ship, and getting the war-weary dudes with low morale out and installing Pentagon men at the top. This plan even goes so far as to provide the government if Israel with a bunch of "bunker-buster" bombs because Israel will join the USA in this attack. Many in Washington swear that this is true and that Bush and his people want to do this very soon, they'd have to, since Election Day is a mere ten days away now. Of all the October Surprise scenarios that have been floated around this year, this one is by far the most ominous and dangerous of them all. Those that leaked word of all of this say that they did so out of fear that if this is done, that it could lead to a huge catastrophe for the world. There are many reasons to think that this is something that could be true and that the catastrophe that they speak of would occur.

If Washington does go through with this insane plan, they would be causing far more trouble than they would know. For there are many people throughout the world that are trying to settle this Iranian nuclear issue without having to resort to war, they want to use diplomacy and all. Some of these people are in Iran right now trying to make this happen, in fact, many of them are at the places that the USA wants to attack. They are working hard to find a solution to this problem, and are not exactly ready to evacuate on a moment's notice. Any strike that Washington made against Iran would certainly kill these people along with the Iranians that America wants to kill. This poses a huge problem, because there are a lot of Russian people over there trying to work this all out, and if America went and killed them wholesale and without warning, the Kremlin would not be pleased. Vladimir Putin is not a real big fan of America as it is, and if this happened, it would seriously fuck up American-Russian relations. Ever since this War On Terror started, Bush has been asking other countries around the world to help out with it. He praises those that comply, and scorns those that do not. He has made an enemy out of France simply because they were not as enthusiastic about the whole thing as he would have liked , so Bush has made it very clear how he stands on this, with his "you're Either with us or against us" mentality. Well, Russia has decided that they would rather be with America on this than against them. Russia has been having its own problems with terrorists, specifically bin Laden and the Chechens, for many years now, and would like to have American help to thwart the problem. Likewise, Russia has expertise at fighting terrorism within its own borders, and America needs that right now. So, it seems very cool that the two countries have joined forces on this one, especially when you look at the past history between them. America and Russia were bitter enemies for decades, they had that whole Cold War thing and started the proliferation of nuclear weaponry in the world, and now they are partners fighting against a common enemy. If Washington just goes ahead and attacks Iran and kills these Russian scientists and peacemakers, this whole relationship is sure to be ruined irreparably. Since Putin does not really like Bush or America anyway, he would be sure to turn against Washington over this. That would bring us right back into the Cold war, because Russia still has lots and lots of that nuclear shit that they had back in the CCCP days and that shit was made to be used against America, and it would not be that hard for Russia to go right back to that again and make themselves the pre-eminent threat to America. Not only is this a very poor example of building allies, but it would stretch the already thin American military much further, as they would have to mobilize against this new/old threat. Bush might win the election by doing this, but he would have Cold War Part Two on his hands, and that Cold War could very well turn into a Hot War against Russia. This is one thing that could come out of this particular October Surprise if Washington does indeed pull it off.

Another problem with all of this is that Iran would not just sit there idly and let America attack it like that. No matter how much damage America and israel did with a sneak attack, they would not be able to destroy everything that Iran has in its military, it is a big country. There would be lots and lots of shit left undamaged, like the warheads that Iran would surely launch into Israel if this is done. They would be sure to blast the shit out of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem as much as they possibly could. They would mobilize their army against Israel and America right away and the fight would be on, more than America could ever realize. A strike like this against Iran would infuriate the Muslim world no end, seeing as they are already incensed against America as it is for what they have done in Iraq. Iran would have no problem finding allies to help them fight this war, there would be volunteers from every Muslim country on earth falling all over themselves to go there and fight. There would be money pouring in from the governments of these lands as well, as this would be the last straw as far as they were concerned. The entire Middle East would become a war zone with every Muslim country against America and Israel. There would be no way that America could control this situation, not spread as thin as they are. It would be no time at all before the whole thing became a monstrous war, maybe even World War 3. America and Israel would have no chances of winning this fight either. They would be in way over their heads, and their allies would be few and far between because many countries would have had their peacemakers and scientists killed in the strikes that started this war and they would just walk away from America this time. So, without the support of any allies, America would soon be in real big trouble with this. Nuclear warheads would be launched not only at Israel, but anywhere that they could be shot, including America. The casualties in this war would be staggering on all sides,and most of them would be innocent civilians on all sides too. No, Iran would not just turn over and play dead even if America strikes all over its lands and kills many of its leaders, they will fight and fight to the death as well. America just cannot afford to antagonize so many other countries like this because they just do not have the fighting forces to handle what they are already doing, let alone start something of this magnitude. Don't think that the Holy Men of Iran are not aware of this either, they are preparing for just this battle. So, even if America sneak attacks them in the next ten days, they will be ready to fight rather quickly, and they have been waiting for this fight, as have many other countries in the region. Washington seems to not have calculated this into their planning when they thought this plan up, if indeed they even did think it up. Once again, Bush might win the election by a large margin, but what he would have on his hands after the Inaugural Parties were all over would be an entire part of the world that was thrown into total chaos and warfare and he would have to do something about it since he was the one that started it to begin with. The Pentagon does not seem to have thought about any of this before thinking this plan up and that is what has so many people so freaked out about it and that's Why they leaked the plan to the press, at least that's what they say.

It is obvious that Bush is a warmonger extreme, that he loves and relishes being at war with anyone and everyone that he does not like, but is he really so far gone that he would actually do something like this just to win the election? We all know that he is desperate to win this thing to finally stop not only the comparisons with his father, but to finally put to rest the ghosts of 2000 as well, to get legitimately elected this time. This thought consumes the man and has for four years now and he might just be crazy enough to try something like this plan against Iran just to get that done. Don't forget, that the minute that Bush is re-elected, if indeed he is, he becomes a lame duck, a dude that has nothing to look forward to except a guaranteed retirement on the taxpayers of America, and no one can do anything about that no matter what. As long as he is not impeached, he gets all the retirement benefits for the rest of his life, and he is not an old dude, so he has many years of retirement to look forward to and enjoy just like his old man does. So, even if he starts some crazy fucked up war with the entire Muslim world (I mean worse than he has already done), nothing can be done to him, he is set foe life. Even if there are impeachement measures taken against him, All that he has to do is quit like Richard Nixon did before he got impeached, and Nixon enjoyed that guaranteed retirement until he died twenty years later. So Bush might feel that he has zero to lose by doing something crazy like this, because it is not a question of whether or not the American people will support him in the short term if he does this, the patriotic rush will overtake America again, and the people will stand behind their leader. There just is not time now for any rational discussion or examination of the issues, Election Day is a mere ten days away. Bush might just not care if he starts World war 3, he will be gone four years from now, and some other poor fucker will have to deal with it while he plays golf with his old man. His underlings that are so power-hungry that they will go along with this will find out that it will be them that will be holding the bag so to speak, they will be the ones that pay for this, not George W. Bush. However, a lot of them are on their last legs too, this is their final farewell no matter how it goes, and then its retirement time for them too, so they may also feel that they have zero to lose with this plan. The young dudes will be the ones that get their careers wrecked and lives ruined when it all goes horribly wrong, so that's cool to the old guard, So they might just be nuts enough to actually do this shit. What history books say about you can be spun many ways, especially these days, so they know that they will be regarded as heroes and patriots by many no matter what happens. It all seems to depend on just how desperate these people are to stay in Washington another four years or so, and by all indications, they are about as desperate as it gets. They have tried all sorts of tricks and chicanery to get elected thus far as it is, and this one might just be the icing on the cake as far as they are concerned. So, they may very well be planning either this or something similar to this for next week.The only thing that might stop them is not the fact that this plan was leaked to the media, they can always deny everything about it until they do it, but the fact that they might not need to go to these extremes to win the election. They know that this is an expensive and risky proposition, and many would probably rather wait until after Election Day to do it because that way they could warn Russia and the others to get their people out of Iran before the strike and save themselves the nastiness of doing otherwise. It would be much easier and safer for America to wait on this one until 2005, preferably after January 20, 2005. Inauguration Day, and that is what washington would like to do, because make no mistake about it, there will be a strike against Iran sometime, the only question is when, as America has an obsession about Iran for many reasons, and they are going to act on that obsession sooner or later. No matter when they do that, it will result in certain disaster for America, and Washington has to decide whether or not that disaster would be worse if it happened in the next ten days or sometime in the New Year. That would be the last question on this matter that president Bush and the White House would have to answer before the inevitable strike against Iran comes and the whole War On Terror thing is taken to yet another level. Whatever is more politically expedient to Bush and his people is what will decide this and nothing else. That will make the next ten days a rather tense time in America, as we all wait for the proverbial hammer to fall on Iran in this case. Whether it is done on October, 2004 or sometime in 2005, it will not really be a surprise, just another extension of America's imperialistic ways.

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